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How do I model twelve months of liraglutide across supply routes?

Asked 31 Aug 2025Modified 10 months agoViewed 6.2k times
19

The lane and the lead time matter as much as the material for what I am doing.

I would rather understand the derivation than memorise the outcome.

Two people I asked gave two answers that differ by a factor of ten, which is suggestive.

What is the general form of this calculation?

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askeda_lindgren58k24831 Aug 2025
6Worth saying which country you are in, because the answer is jurisdictional. – m_haraldsen 11 days ago
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1 Answer

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Accepted answer

Twelve months is 52 weekly administrations across 365 days, and on a four-week ladder from the bottom of the range about 5 steps — so roughly 20 of the 52 doses are escalation doses and 32 are at maintenance. Model it in that order and the routes become comparable: doses per year first, milligrams per dose second, cost per milligram third. Anything quoted per vial hides the second of those, which is the one that changes most between the first 20 doses and the last 32. Then add what each route charges that the other does not. A prescription route carries consultation and dispensing fees, spread across the 52 doses rather than paid once. A research route carries testing, shipping, and the material lost between them. Testing is the line most sheets omit. At one lot a quarter, a test-every-lot policy is 4 assays a year; at one lot a month it is 12. That difference is usually larger than any difference in price per milligram, and it is a policy you choose rather than a cost you are quoted. Put doses per year in the top row and derive everything under it, and the twelve-month totals compare on arithmetic instead of on presentation.

The relevant arithmetic is that a fifteen per cent price advantage disappears against a ten per cent content shortfall plus a testing cost.

Independent testing costs roughly the price of one to two vials at the services this community uses. On a two-vial order that is a fifty to a hundred per cent surcharge; on a twenty-vial order it is five per cent.

Change one number and it reverses: if B assays at 82 per cent, that is 8.2 mg for £52, or £6.34/mg, and the cheaper vial is now the more expensive peptide.

Published content assay results across the independent services show nominal and measured content differing by one to ten per cent, which is the term that makes label-price comparisons unreliable.

A spreadsheet built on label claim rather than measured content is precise about the wrong number.

Divide by measured content, not by label claim. That is the whole correction.

edited 6 Oct 2025 by ilaria_bertone — reworded for clarity after a comment

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answered · acceptedilaria_bertone33k3811 Sept 2025
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