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How do I model twelve months of oral semaglutide across supply routes?

Asked 16 Aug 2024Modified 20 months agoViewed 23k times
19

I have certificates from two lots and an independent result on one of them.

I would like the arithmetic checked rather than the conclusion asserted.

I have deliberately not used an online calculator because I want to be able to check the result.

Can someone show the working rather than just the answer?

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LM
askedleonid_marchuk19k2716 Aug 2024

5 Answers

Accepted answer first, then by votes
110

Accepted answer

Twelve months is 52 weekly administrations across 365 days, and on a four-week ladder from the bottom of the range about 5 steps — so roughly 20 of the 52 doses are escalation doses and 32 are at maintenance. Model it in that order and the routes become comparable: doses per year first, milligrams per dose second, cost per milligram third. Anything quoted per vial hides the second of those, which is the one that changes most between the first 20 doses and the last 32. Then add what each route charges that the other does not. A prescription route carries consultation and dispensing fees, spread across the 52 doses rather than paid once. A research route carries testing, shipping, and the material lost between them. Testing is the line most sheets omit. At one lot a quarter, a test-every-lot policy is 4 assays a year; at one lot a month it is 12. That difference is usually larger than any difference in price per milligram, and it is a policy you choose rather than a cost you are quoted. Put doses per year in the top row and derive everything under it, and the twelve-month totals compare on arithmetic instead of on presentation.

The honest answer is that the cheapest headline price is frequently not the cheapest outcome.

Change one number and it reverses: if B assays at 82 per cent, that is 8.2 mg for £52, or £6.34/mg, and the cheaper vial is now the more expensive peptide.

Cost per milligram, adjusted honestly

StepValueNote
Vial price, 10 mg nominal£34.00As advertised
Nominal cost per mg£3.4034 ÷ 10
Measured content9.2 mgIndependent content assay
Cost per actual mg£3.7034 ÷ 9.2
Dead-space loss, 20 draws4 %80 µL of a 2 mL fill
Cost per delivered mg£3.853.70 ÷ 0.96
First vial, with £110 assay£14.85Testing dominates a single vial

To be exact about it, dead-space loss is small with fixed-needle insulin syringes — a few microlitres per draw — and substantial with detachable-needle luer syringes at 35 to 100 microlitres. Across twenty draws that is up to two millilitres of solution.

Published content assay results across the independent services show nominal and measured content differing by one to ten per cent, which is the term that makes label-price comparisons unreliable.

Fixed-needle syringes save more peptide than most price differences do.

edited 4 Sept 2024 by ilaria_bertone — reworded for clarity after a comment

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IB
answered · acceptedilaria_bertone33k3831 Aug 2024
5Is there a sensible order size where independent testing stops being a large surcharge? – w_okoye 2 months ago
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45

Testing cost per milligram falls sharply with order size, which is the main argument against very small repeat orders.

Wastage from a reconstituted vial discarded at the end of its in-use period is a genuine cost, and it is a function of the diluent volume chosen at reconstitution rather than of anything the supplier did.

Cost per milligram is the wrong metric entirely if you are optimising for confidence rather than price, and it is worth saying which one you are doing before you build the spreadsheet.

A spreadsheet built on label claim rather than measured content is precise about the wrong number.

Larger orders are cheaper per milligram and concentrate lot risk. Price both.

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DO
answeredDr_Malik_Osei19k2720 Aug 2024
Does the same reasoning hold for a group order, where one lot covers everybody? – Dr_Colm_Fitzhenry 9 months ago
I would add a line about writing the accept threshold down first. It is the step everyone skips. – t_oyelaran 7 months ago
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31

Answer first: compare cost per milligram of measured peptide, not per milligram of label claim, because content varies enough to reverse a comparison.

The full calculation: (unit price + carriage share + testing share) ÷ (nominal mg × measured content fraction × (1 − dead-space and wastage fraction)). Every term after the first is routinely omitted.

Stated carefully, worked example. Supplier A: £60 for a 10 mg vial, content 96 per cent, so 9.6 mg for £60, or £6.25/mg before carriage. Supplier B: £52 for the same nominal vial, content 88 per cent, so 8.8 mg for £52, or £5.91/mg. B still wins here, but the gap has narrowed from thirteen per cent on the label to five per cent in reality.

Carriage on international consignments scales sub-linearly with weight, which is the quantitative basis for order consolidation.

Nothing here is medical advice, and research-use compounds are not approved for human use.

Decide whether you are optimising cost or confidence before you build the model.

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DH
answeredDr_Jonas_Halvorsen28k377 Dec 2024
26

Start by listing every cost in the chain, since carriage, testing and wastage frequently exceed the difference in headline price.

Independent testing costs roughly the price of one to two vials at the services this community uses. On a two-vial order that is a fifty to a hundred per cent surcharge; on a twenty-vial order it is five per cent.

Independent testing prices at the services this community uses are published and are stable enough to model.

Include carriage and testing as per-milligram terms. They dominate small orders.

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DB
answeredDr_Fatima_Belkacem18k2612 Dec 2024
25

The short version: unit price, carriage, testing, dead-space loss and wastage. The first is the one everybody compares and rarely the one that decides it.

Carriage amortises across the order. Twenty-five pounds of carriage on one vial is £2.50/mg on a 10 mg vial; on ten vials it is £0.25/mg. That single term explains most of the case for larger, less frequent orders.

Syringe dead-space volumes are published per design, with fixed-needle insulin syringes under 5 microlitres and conventional luer designs at 35 microlitres or more.

Divide by measured content, not by label claim. That is the whole correction.

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TA
answeredtess_amankwah22k271 Dec 2024

Your answer

Ask PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.

Not medical advice. Research-use-only compounds are not approved for human use.