At 2–8 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether oxidation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. 2–8 °C is the condition the rule of thumb is anchored to, so it is the baseline rather than a multiplier: everything else in this thread is quoted relative to it. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Met and Trp take up oxygen sixteen daltons at a time, and the oxidised species is more polar, so on a reversed-phase column it elutes ahead of the parent rather than behind it. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees oxidation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
Start with the sequence, because which pathways are available depends on which residues are present.
Hydrolysis cleaves the backbone, most readily at aspartate-proline and aspartate-glycine sequences, and is acid-catalysed. In a dry solid it barely proceeds at all.
Aggregation is physical: peptides unfold at air-liquid interfaces and associate. Shaking maximises that interface, which is why swirling and shaking produce visibly different outcomes on the same vial.
Metal-catalysed oxidation of methionine is documented across peptide and protein formulations and is why chelators appear in some formulations.
Swirl, never shake. Aggregation is a handling problem more than a time problem.
edited 4 Sept 2025 by RP_C18 — added the placebo-arm figures