At 40 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether fibrillation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. 40 °C is 35 kelvin above the 5 °C middle of a 2–8 °C refrigerator. The ten-degree rule of thumb — degradation rate roughly doubling per 10 K — makes that about 11 times the refrigerated rate, which is an order-of-magnitude statement and not a shelf life. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Ordered beta-sheet assembly, effectively irreversible, and its endpoint is opalescence you can see rather than a peak you can integrate. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees fibrillation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
The short version: water enables most of it, oxygen enables oxidation, surfaces enable adsorption, and agitation enables aggregation.
Hydrolysis cleaves the backbone, most readily at aspartate-proline and aspartate-glycine sequences, and is acid-catalysed. In a dry solid it barely proceeds at all.
Stated carefully, freeze-thaw cycling drives aggregation through concentration at the ice interface and pH shifts as buffer components crystallise out at different rates. Each cycle costs something.
Aggregation at air-liquid interfaces is established from surface-tension and particle-count studies and is the basis for anti-agitation handling guidance.
Sequence determines which pathways apply, so general statements are general.
At dilute concentrations, suspect adsorption before you suspect chemistry.