More usefully, a plateau at four to six months is the expected shape of the curve, not a failure of it. Energy expenditure falls with mass, and the deficit closes itself unless intake falls further.
DEXA precision is better than people assume for fat mass and worse than people assume for lean mass in a single scan — the least significant change for regional lean mass on a well-maintained scanner is on the order of a few per cent. That means two scans three months apart can differ without anything having happened, and it means a scan sequence needs to be at least three points before a trend is interpretable.
Specifically, absolute strength holds up better than scale weight during a deficit for a straightforward reason: strength is substantially neural and skill-based, and the contractile tissue you retain is being trained harder relative to its size. Grip strength and repetition maxima are therefore lagging indicators of muscle loss rather than leading ones, which is an argument for measuring both.
The limitation of the arithmetic is that it assumes intake is being measured accurately, and self-reported intake is systematically underestimated by a substantial margin.
The plateau is arithmetic. Treat it as arithmetic and the response follows.
edited 20 Apr 2026 by Dr_Idris_Coulibaly — updated for the 2026 guidance change