I am reading the trial table rather than the press release, which is why the numbers differ.
I can parse the result. I am less sure what it licenses me to conclude.
I have deliberately not looked at anyone else’s interpretation yet.
What does this actually establish, and what does it not?
Put another way, read the estimand before the effect size. Almost every apparent contradiction between two published figures from the same trial resolves once you notice that one is a trial-product estimand and the other is a treatment-policy estimand.
Creatinine is a muscle-derived metabolite, so a substantial loss of lean mass lowers serum creatinine and mathematically raises estimated GFR without anything happening to the kidney. If you have lost twenty kilograms, your creatinine-based eGFR is flattering you. Cystatin C is not muscle-dependent and is the measure to use when the two disagree.
| Quantity | Value | Derivation |
|---|---|---|
| Control-arm event rate | 8.0 % | From the trial table, not the abstract |
| Hazard ratio | 0.80 | Reported |
| Treated event rate | 6.4 % | 8.0 × 0.80 |
| Absolute risk reduction | 1.6 pp | 8.0 − 6.4 |
| Number needed to treat | 63 | 1 ÷ 0.016 |
| Relative risk reduction | 20 % | 1 − 0.80 |
The last two rows describe the same finding. Only one of them is used in headlines.
On the detail: the rodent thyroid C-cell findings that generated the labelled warning appear to be species-specific: rodent C-cells express GLP-1 receptors at high density, human C-cells at very low density, and human calcitonin data across large trial populations has not reproduced the signal. A family history of medullary thyroid carcinoma or MEN2 is nonetheless a genuine contraindication rather than a theoretical one.
SUSTAIN 6 was the original cardiovascular outcomes trial for semaglutide in type 2 diabetes and is the reference point for the class effect that SELECT later extended to a non-diabetic population[1].
The caveat is the population. Trial participants were screened, monitored and supported; the effect size in an unmonitored setting is not the trial effect size, and it is not obvious in which direction the difference runs.
Read the confidence interval, read the estimand, and compute the absolute effect yourself. It takes two minutes and it changes how the result feels.
Analytical standards and reagents with traceable certificates. Every quantitative result you read inherits the accuracy of the standard behind it.
Shop standardsAsk PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.