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What does ESSENCE tell me about constipation at the 15 mg dose?

Asked 27 Mar 2024Modified 2.2 years agoViewed 35k times
32

Details up front: ESSENCE · constipation · 15 mg.

This is presented as though it settles something, and I am not convinced it does.

I have two documents that appear to disagree, which is what prompted this.

What is the correct interpretation, and what is the common misreading?

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askedvial_five15k2827 Mar 2024

2 Answers

Accepted answer first, then by votes
66

Accepted answer

Specifically, a single laboratory value is a point on a noisy curve. What you want is a trend across at least three draws under comparable conditions, and "comparable" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

Estimated average glucose from HbA1c: eAG in mg/dL = 28.7 × A1c − 46.7, or in mmol/L, 1.59 × A1c − 2.59. An A1c of 6.5 per cent is therefore about 140 mg/dL or 7.8 mmol/L. The relationship is a population regression, so an individual can sit well off the line.

ApoB and LDL-C disagree because they measure different things: LDL-C is the cholesterol mass carried in the LDL fraction, ApoB is a count of atherogenic particles. Small dense particles carry less cholesterol each, so a person with many small particles has a concordantly higher ApoB than their LDL-C suggests. When they disagree, ApoB is the better risk marker.

STEP 1 reported a mean weight change of approximately −14.9 per cent with semaglutide 2.4 mg versus −2.4 per cent with placebo at 68 weeks[1]; the difference between the figures quoted from this trial in different places is an estimand difference.

The caveat is the population. Trial participants were screened, monitored and supported; the effect size in an unmonitored setting is not the trial effect size, and it is not obvious in which direction the difference runs.

Read the confidence interval, read the estimand, and compute the absolute effect yourself. It takes two minutes and it changes how the result feels.

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answered · acceptedjuan_esquivel14k1614 Apr 2024
5Small correction: the units in the third paragraph should be micrograms, not milligrams. – Dr_Priya_Raghunathan 30 days ago
4Do you have a reference for the last claim? Not disputing it, just want to read it. – a_lindgren 9 months ago
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55

On the detail: the hazard ratio is the relative effect. What changes decisions is the absolute effect, and converting between them requires the event rate in the control arm, which is usually in the same table and rarely in the abstract.

Liver enzymes are a poor surrogate for hepatic histology in both directions: substantial steatohepatitis with normal transaminases is common, and modest enzyme elevation with minimal fibrosis is common. If the question is fibrosis, the answer comes from a non-invasive score such as FIB-4 or a stiffness measurement, not from ALT.

The rodent thyroid C-cell findings that generated the labelled warning appear to be species-specific: rodent C-cells express GLP-1 receptors at high density, human C-cells at very low density, and human calcitonin data across large trial populations has not reproduced the signal. A family history of medullary thyroid carcinoma or MEN2 is nonetheless a genuine contraindication rather than a theoretical one.

I would resist reading a subgroup finding as a result. Subgroups in these trials were not powered, and a striking subgroup in a large trial is the expected consequence of multiplicity.

The papers are readable. Read the paper rather than the summary of the paper, especially where the summary is enthusiastic.

edited 1 May 2024 by Dr_Signe_Baldursdottir — clarified the distinction between purity and content

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answeredDr_Signe_Baldursdottir46k3825 Apr 2024
3Do you have a reference for the last claim? Not disputing it, just want to read it. – fib4_reader 1 months ago
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Ask PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.

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