Accepted answer
Whatever the refrigerated figure is, divide it by about 1. 2–8 °C is the condition the rule of thumb is anchored to, so it is the baseline rather than a multiplier: everything else in this thread is quoted relative to it. So a preparation with a twenty-eight day refrigerated figure has roughly 28 days at 2–8 °C on the same assumption — an order-of-magnitude answer, not a shelf life, and it says nothing about sterility, which has its own clock. "Within specification" also needs a specification: purity, content, or both, and at what limit. Without that the question has no numerical answer at all.
The short version: water enables most of it, oxygen enables oxidation, surfaces enable adsorption, and agitation enables aggregation.
Hydrolysis cleaves the backbone, most readily at aspartate-proline and aspartate-glycine sequences, and is acid-catalysed. In a dry solid it barely proceeds at all.
Degradation pathway by condition
| Pathway | Dominant when | Detected by |
|---|
| Deamidation | Solution, neutral to alkaline pH | RP-HPLC, +1 Da on MS |
| Oxidation | Light, trace metals, peroxides | RP-HPLC, +16 Da on MS |
| Hydrolysis | Solution, extremes of pH | RP-HPLC, fragment masses |
| Aggregation | Agitation, interfaces, high concentration | SEC, visual haze; often invisible on RP-HPLC |
| Freeze-concentration damage | Freeze-thaw of buffered solution | SEC, loss of recovered content |
Adsorption onto glass and plastic is significant at low concentrations — micrograms per millilitre — and negligible at milligrams per millilitre. It is the usual explanation for an apparent loss in a dilute preparation.
Deamidation via the succinimide intermediate is well characterised, with sequence-dependent rates highest for asparagine-glycine motifs.
The caveat is that none of these pathways can be seen by looking at a vial, and a clear solution can be substantially degraded.
Cold, dry, dark, still. Those four words cover most of the mitigation.