Accepted answer
At minus 80 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether aggregation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. minus 80 °C is 85 kelvin below a refrigerator, and below the glass transition of a lyophilised cake the ten-degree rule of thumb stops applying at all — solid-state chemistry is not slow liquid chemistry, it is a different regime, and the failure modes that survive it are mechanical rather than chemical. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Molecules associate without any covalent change, so the mass is unchanged and a reversed-phase run — which is performed in organic solvent — mostly dissolves the evidence before it can be measured. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees aggregation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
The honest answer is that most reported "degradation" is adsorption and dilution error rather than chemistry.
Aggregation is physical: peptides unfold at air-liquid interfaces and associate. Shaking maximises that interface, which is why swirling and shaking produce visibly different outcomes on the same vial.
Reported and extrapolated stability by condition
| State | Condition | Usable window | Basis |
|---|
| Lyophilised solid | −20 °C, sealed, dry | 24–36 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 2–8 °C, sealed | 12–24 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 25 °C, sealed | 4–8 weeks | Extrapolated (Arrhenius) |
| Lyophilised solid | 40 °C, sealed | 1–2 weeks | Extrapolated |
| Solution, preserved | 2–8 °C | 28 days | USP microbiological convention |
| Solution, preserved | 25 °C | 3–7 days | Extrapolated |
| Solution, unpreserved | 2–8 °C | 24 hours | USP microbiological convention |
Windows for the solid state are chemical; windows for solution are microbiological and usually shorter than the chemical limit.
Adsorption onto glass and plastic is significant at low concentrations — micrograms per millilitre — and negligible at milligrams per millilitre. It is the usual explanation for an apparent loss in a dilute preparation.
Aggregation at air-liquid interfaces is established from surface-tension and particle-count studies and is the basis for anti-agitation handling guidance.
Nothing here is medical advice, and research-use compounds are not approved for human use.
At dilute concentrations, suspect adsorption before you suspect chemistry.