Mechanically, the honest answer is that published stability data for these specific molecules in a research-grade presentation essentially does not exist, so what you get is extrapolation from the licensed formulations and from general peptide chemistry. That extrapolation is reasonable. It is still extrapolation.
For the solid state, residual moisture is the dominant variable. A cake at two per cent water is considerably more stable than the same cake at six per cent, because water is both a reactant in hydrolysis and a plasticiser that lowers the glass transition temperature. This is why a desiccant in the outer packaging is not theatre, and why opening a cold vial in a humid room is a genuine error — you condense water onto the cake.
The temperature dependence is roughly Arrhenius over the range that matters, which in practice means every ten degrees of increase roughly doubles to triples the rate. Ten days at thirty degrees is therefore comparable to something on the order of a month or two at four degrees — bad, but not the catastrophe it feels like when you open a warm parcel.
The limitation is that you cannot detect slow aggregation by eye until it is well advanced, so a clear vial is weak evidence of an intact one.
Store solid, store cold, store dry, and reconstitute what you will use rather than what fits in the vial.
edited 13 Nov 2024 by lane_transit — reworded for clarity after a comment
7The arithmetic checks out. I ran the same numbers and got the same result. – tabular_nums 2 months ago add a comment