Details up front: hydrolysis · orforglipron · 40 °C.
I can predict the outcome but I cannot explain it, which means I will get the next case wrong.
I would like to know how confident the field actually is about this.
What is actually going on here, physically?
At 40 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether hydrolysis happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. 40 °C is 35 kelvin above the 5 °C middle of a 2–8 °C refrigerator. The ten-degree rule of thumb — degradation rate roughly doubling per 10 K — makes that about 11 times the refrigerated rate, which is an order-of-magnitude statement and not a shelf life. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Backbone amide bonds cleave, so every product is shorter than the parent and the mass ladder they leave behind is the evidence that it happened. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees hydrolysis specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
Answer first: the degradation pathways worth knowing are hydrolysis, deamidation, oxidation, aggregation and adsorption, and each has a different trigger and a different mitigation.
Deamidation converts asparagine or glutamine to the corresponding acid via a succinimide intermediate, adding one dalton. It is base-catalysed, accelerates above neutral pH and is the dominant aqueous pathway for many peptides.
The part that matters: light exposure matters for tryptophan-containing sequences and for anything with a chromophore. Amber vials and a closed box are free mitigations.
Deamidation via the succinimide intermediate is well characterised, with sequence-dependent rates highest for asparagine-glycine motifs.
The caveat is that none of these pathways can be seen by looking at a vial, and a clear solution can be substantially degraded.
Sequence decides which pathways are even available. Check the residues.
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Browse resultsThe relevant point is that a mass shift of plus one dalton is deamidation and plus sixteen is oxidation, so degradation is often visible in a mass spectrum if anyone looks.
Hydrolysis cleaves the backbone, most readily at aspartate-proline and aspartate-glycine sequences, and is acid-catalysed. In a dry solid it barely proceeds at all.
Specifically, adsorption onto glass and plastic is significant at low concentrations — micrograms per millilitre — and negligible at milligrams per millilitre. It is the usual explanation for an apparent loss in a dilute preparation.
Apparent loss in a dilute preparation is usually adsorption rather than degradation and is worth ruling out first.
Swirl, never shake. Aggregation is a handling problem more than a time problem.
Start with the sequence, because which pathways are available depends on which residues are present.
Oxidation targets methionine, cysteine and tryptophan, adding sixteen daltons per oxygen. It is catalysed by trace metals and promoted by dissolved oxygen and by light.
A mass spectrum resolves most of this: minus eighteen is dehydration or succinimide, plus one is deamidation, plus sixteen is oxidation, and an unchanged mass with a shifted retention time is an isomer.
Aggregation at air-liquid interfaces is established from surface-tension and particle-count studies and is the basis for anti-agitation handling guidance.
At dilute concentrations, suspect adsorption before you suspect chemistry.
edited 23 Nov 2025 by gradient_slope — reworded for clarity after a comment
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