Accepted answer
At 2–8 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether dimerisation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. 2–8 °C is the condition the rule of thumb is anchored to, so it is the baseline rather than a multiplier: everything else in this thread is quoted relative to it. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Two chains join, usually through a disulfide, so the product is roughly twice the mass and shows up as a late peak — or as nothing, if it never comes off the column. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees dimerisation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
The short version: water enables most of it, oxygen enables oxidation, surfaces enable adsorption, and agitation enables aggregation.
Aggregation is physical: peptides unfold at air-liquid interfaces and associate. Shaking maximises that interface, which is why swirling and shaking produce visibly different outcomes on the same vial.
Reported and extrapolated stability by condition
| State | Condition | Usable window | Basis |
|---|
| Lyophilised solid | −20 °C, sealed, dry | 24–36 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 2–8 °C, sealed | 12–24 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 25 °C, sealed | 4–8 weeks | Extrapolated (Arrhenius) |
| Lyophilised solid | 40 °C, sealed | 1–2 weeks | Extrapolated |
| Solution, preserved | 2–8 °C | 28 days | USP microbiological convention |
| Solution, preserved | 25 °C | 3–7 days | Extrapolated |
| Solution, unpreserved | 2–8 °C | 24 hours | USP microbiological convention |
Windows for the solid state are chemical; windows for solution are microbiological and usually shorter than the chemical limit.
Concretely, freeze-thaw cycling drives aggregation through concentration at the ice interface and pH shifts as buffer components crystallise out at different rates. Each cycle costs something.
Aggregation at air-liquid interfaces is established from surface-tension and particle-count studies and is the basis for anti-agitation handling guidance.
Sequence decides which pathways are even available. Check the residues.