Accepted answer
At 40 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether aggregation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. 40 °C is 35 kelvin above the 5 °C middle of a 2–8 °C refrigerator. The ten-degree rule of thumb — degradation rate roughly doubling per 10 K — makes that about 11 times the refrigerated rate, which is an order-of-magnitude statement and not a shelf life. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Molecules associate without any covalent change, so the mass is unchanged and a reversed-phase run — which is performed in organic solvent — mostly dissolves the evidence before it can be measured. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees aggregation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
The honest answer is that most reported "degradation" is adsorption and dilution error rather than chemistry.
Oxidation targets methionine, cysteine and tryptophan, adding sixteen daltons per oxygen. It is catalysed by trace metals and promoted by dissolved oxygen and by light.
Reported and extrapolated stability by condition
| State | Condition | Usable window | Basis |
|---|
| Lyophilised solid | −20 °C, sealed, dry | 24–36 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 2–8 °C, sealed | 12–24 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 25 °C, sealed | 4–8 weeks | Extrapolated (Arrhenius) |
| Lyophilised solid | 40 °C, sealed | 1–2 weeks | Extrapolated |
| Solution, preserved | 2–8 °C | 28 days | USP microbiological convention |
| Solution, preserved | 25 °C | 3–7 days | Extrapolated |
| Solution, unpreserved | 2–8 °C | 24 hours | USP microbiological convention |
Windows for the solid state are chemical; windows for solution are microbiological and usually shorter than the chemical limit.
Freeze-thaw cycling drives aggregation through concentration at the ice interface and pH shifts as buffer components crystallise out at different rates. Each cycle costs something.
Metal-catalysed oxidation of methionine is documented across peptide and protein formulations and is why chelators appear in some formulations.
Nothing here is medical advice, and research-use compounds are not approved for human use.
At dilute concentrations, suspect adsorption before you suspect chemistry.