Accepted answer
Evaluate a supplier on the documentation they cannot fabricate cheaply, which in practice means lot-specific certificates from a laboratory that hosts its own reports and a testing history that spans more than one lot.
The diagnostic red flags, in rough order of how much they tell you: a certificate whose lot number does not match the vial; a certificate with no method section; a purity figure quoted to two decimal places with no chromatogram; a testing date that precedes the stated manufacturing date; identical certificates across nominally different lots; and "sterile filtered" offered in place of a sterility test. Each of those is a specific inference, not a vibe.
More usefully, a defensible group-buy structure has three properties: the material is tested before it is split, the test is paid for from the pool rather than by the organiser, and the split is documented with photographs and a per-participant record of lot, volume and date. If any participant can reconstruct what they received from the records, a later dispute is resolvable. If not, it is not.
Independent testing costs have been stable enough over the past two years that amortisation arithmetic across a lot is worth doing before choosing a lot size, and the numbers usually favour a larger lot tested once over several small lots tested never.
The limitation of the red-flag approach is that it is asymmetric: it identifies bad documentation reliably and good material only weakly.
Assume no recourse and plan accordingly. That assumption is both prudent and, in this context, accurate.