Accepted answer
Start with the physical state. Lyophilised powder is stable at ambient for the duration of any normal lane; anything in solution is a different conversation entirely.
A single phase-change pack in a thin-walled box holds below ten degrees for roughly one to two days at twenty-five degrees ambient and under a day at thirty-five. On a twelve-day lane the material is at ambient for most of the journey regardless of what was packed.
Tracking quality is the more informative signal: continuous scanning at every hop indicates a real logistics chain, and a tracking number that goes dark for a week indicates something else.
Phase-change pack hold times are a function of mass, latent heat and box insulation, and published figures for small parcels are on the order of a day or two.
A liquefied pack on arrival is expected. It is not evidence of a problem.