Accepted answer
The relevant statistical point is that a ninety-five per cent reference interval means one analyte in twenty will read out of range in a healthy person by construction.
A twenty-analyte panel run on a healthy person will produce, on average, one out-of-range result purely from how reference intervals are constructed. That is arithmetic rather than pathology.
Relative to absolute, worked
| Quantity | Value | Derivation |
|---|
| Control-arm event rate | 8.0 % | From the trial table, not the abstract |
| Hazard ratio | 0.80 | Reported |
| Treated event rate | 6.4 % | 8.0 × 0.80 |
| Absolute risk reduction | 1.6 pp | 8.0 − 6.4 |
| Number needed to treat | 63 | 1 ÷ 0.016 |
| Relative risk reduction | 20 % | 1 − 0.80 |
The last two rows describe the same finding. Only one of them is used in headlines.
More usefully, delta checks — comparing against your own previous value — are far more sensitive than comparing against a population interval, which is the argument for keeping a series rather than a snapshot.
Reference intervals are conventionally the central ninety-five per cent of a reference population, which is the direct cause of the one-in-twenty out-of-range rate on a healthy panel.
The caveat is that a panel is not a diagnosis and interpreting one is a clinician's job, particularly when several values move together.
Keep the full report, not the number. You will need the units and the interval later.