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How should contraception be handled if cycles resume?

Asked 15 Mar 2024Modified 2.1 years agoViewed 47k times
24

I have the full paper rather than the abstract, and the supplementary appendix.

This is a planning question. I know what my options are; I do not know how to weigh them.

What I want is the minimum viable version, which I suspect is smaller than what I would design.

What is the minimum version of this that is still defensible?

pcos
pcos

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hormones
hormones

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harm-reduction
harm-reduction

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472 questions
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DO
askedDr_Malik_Osei19k2715 Mar 2024
Same question, and the two papers I found disagree, which is why I am watching. – stopper_core 7 months ago
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4 Answers

Accepted answer first, then by votes
84

Accepted answer

The diagnostic criteria themselves are contested, so studies using different criteria are not enrolling quite the same people.

Cycle regularity is a slow endpoint. Three to six months is the minimum window in which a change would be interpretable, and shorter studies are measuring noise.

Relative to absolute, worked

QuantityValueDerivation
Control-arm event rate8.0 %From the trial table, not the abstract
Hazard ratio0.80Reported
Treated event rate6.4 %8.0 × 0.80
Absolute risk reduction1.6 pp8.0 − 6.4
Number needed to treat631 ÷ 0.016
Relative risk reduction20 %1 − 0.80

The last two rows describe the same finding. Only one of them is used in headlines.

More usefully, the Rotterdam criteria allow several combinations of the three diagnostic features, so a study enrolling on one combination reports on a different population from one enrolling on another.

Dedicated randomised evidence for this class in this diagnosis is limited and mostly small; the strong evidence is for the metabolic endpoints in adjacent populations.

Free androgen changes can come from the binding protein rather than from production. Read both numbers.

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DS
answered · accepteddmitri_savchuk27k3816 Jun 2024
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95

Answering this properly needs to separate metabolic outcomes, reproductive outcomes and dermatological outcomes, which have different evidence bases and different timescales.

Insulin resistance measured by HOMA-IR improves alongside weight in this class, and HOMA-IR is a fasting-sample surrogate rather than a clamp measurement — adequate for tracking, weak for comparing across studies.

Free androgen index responds to sex-hormone-binding globulin, which itself rises as insulin resistance falls. So an androgen improvement can appear without any change in total testosterone production, purely through the binding protein.

Guideline recommendations in this condition still put weight management and metformin ahead of newer agents, on evidence-base grounds rather than on mechanism.

The evidence gap between metabolic and reproductive endpoints in this condition is real, and inference across it should be labelled as inference.

Check which diagnostic criteria a study used before comparing it with another.

edited 13 Jun 2024 by Dr_Aoife_Brennan — removed a claim I could not source

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DB
answeredDr_Aoife_Brennan20k2725 May 2024
The number needed to treat is the framing that finally made this concrete for me. – g_paskevicius 8 months ago
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64

Answer first: most of the metabolic evidence here is indirect, drawn from insulin-resistance and weight endpoints in populations that overlap with this one rather than from dedicated trials.

Metformin remains the comparator with the longest evidence base in this condition, and any claim that a newer agent is superior needs a head-to-head trial rather than cross-study comparison.

In practice, hirsutism and acne respond on the timescale of the hair growth cycle, which is months, so early absence of change says nothing.

The relationship between insulin resistance and ovarian androgen production is well characterised mechanistically and is the basis for insulin-sensitising approaches generally.

Research-use material of unverified content is not a treatment for anything, and the category difference matters more here than usual.

Separate metabolic, reproductive and dermatological endpoints before reading any claim about this condition.

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RT
answeredrune_thoresen16k2814 May 2024
4Thank you for separating the surrogate from the outcome. That distinction gets lost constantly. – sian_llewellyn 7 months ago
5Thank you — this is the answer I was looking for. – pk_curve 9 months ago
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41

This is an area where the mechanistic argument is stronger than the trial evidence, and it is worth saying so plainly rather than dressing up the inference.

Weight reduction of five to ten per cent has been associated in the older literature with restored ovulatory function in a meaningful fraction of people with this diagnosis, which is the mechanistic bridge the current interest rests on.

The caveat is substantial: this is a diagnosis with reproductive, dermatological and metabolic dimensions, and it needs an actual clinician rather than a mechanism argument.

The mechanism is plausible; the direct evidence is thin. Both statements are true at once.

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DB
answeredDr_Aoife_Brennan20k275 Jun 2024

Your answer

Ask PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.

Not medical advice. Research-use-only compounds are not approved for human use.